A significant severe weather event is on tap for Iowa today, Friday, March 14, 2025, as a powerful storm system moves through the region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed some of the state under a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds as the main threat, and large hail, and a few tornadoes as secondary threats.
Current Setup
Warm and moist air is surging northward into the Plains, helping to set the stage for today’s severe weather. Clouds and even an elevated thunderstorm earlier this morning over eastern Iowa provided evidence of this increasing instability.
As we move through the day, the trough will continue to intensify, eventually developing into a negatively tilted system. This will help to back surface winds to a more southeasterly direction, increasing low-level wind shear and further enhancing the severe weather potential.
Severe Weather Timing & Threats
The first round of storms could develop around midday as warm air continues to push into the region. However, the main severe threat will arrive later in the afternoon and into the evening, with storms rapidly forming after 3 PM.
Primary Threats:
- Damaging Winds: The primary concern today is widespread damaging winds, with gusts of 65-80 mph possible. These winds could result from both organized storms and individual downbursts, particularly in central and southeastern Iowa.
- Tornadoes: While confidence in tornadoes has decreased slightly due to drier air and higher cloud bases (LCLs around 2,000 feet), southeastern Iowa remains at risk. Embedded tornadoes within a squall line (QLCS) are still possible, and if surface moisture recovers more than expected, a few supercells capable of producing tornadoes could develop.
- Large Hail: The potential for large hail will depend on how much low-level moisture can make it into the state. The greatest risk for hail exists in southeastern Iowa, where storm organization will be most favorable.
Additional Hazards
Beyond the severe storms, strong non-thunderstorm winds will also be a concern. A Wind Advisory remains in effect, with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts over 40 mph expected through the afternoon. Some areas along and south of I-80 could see gusts exceeding 50 mph, approaching High Wind Warning criteria.
Fire Danger: Due to the combination of strong winds, warm temperatures, and dry conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for parts of the state. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged, as any fires that develop could spread rapidly.
Winter Weather Concerns: On the backside of this system, some light snowfall may develop over northern Iowa late Friday night into Saturday. Although snowfall amounts will be light, strong winds could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility, especially north of Highway 20.
Preparedness & Safety Tips
- Stay Weather Aware: Have multiple ways to receive warnings, such as NOAA Weather Radio, smartphone alerts, and local TV/radio broadcasts.
- Know Your Safe Place: With storms moving at 55-60 mph, there will be very little time to react. Make sure you know where to seek shelter if a warning is issued.
- Secure Loose Objects: High winds ahead of and during the storms could cause outdoor items to become airborne hazards.
- Avoid Outdoor Burning: The fire risk is high today—postpone any outdoor burning activities.
Final Thoughts
Enjoy the unseasonably warm temperatures today, but stay prepared for the severe weather threat later this afternoon and evening. Conditions are rapidly evolving, so be sure to check for updates throughout the day. If warnings are issued, take them seriously and act quickly!