Iowa is enjoying another stretch of unusually mild November weather, but a noticeable change is coming later this week. Temperatures will climb well into the 60s across much of the state Monday, with a few locations in western and southwestern Iowa potentially reaching the lower 70s. Dry conditions and periods of sunshine will make for a pleasant start to the workweek, especially compared to the colder weather that typically arrives during November. Tuesday will bring another relatively warm afternoon, although temperatures may run a few degrees cooler in some areas. The bigger changes begin Wednesday as a developing weather system brings increasing clouds, a chance of light rain, and the first signs of colder air moving into Iowa.
By Thursday and Friday, afternoon temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s across much of Iowa, with some northern locations potentially remaining in the upper 30s. Overnight temperatures could fall below freezing across much of the state, especially Friday morning when skies clear and winds become lighter. Despite the colder air, significant rain or snow is not expected, and the overall weather pattern looks fairly dry through the upcoming weekend. The good news is that this colder stretch should not last very long, with temperatures expected to recover heading into Saturday and Sunday. Longer-range weather outlooks also favor above-normal temperatures returning during the middle of November.
Warm November Weather Continues Monday and Tuesday
Monday will feel more like a pleasant October afternoon than the second week of November, with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s across Iowa. Central and southern Iowa should see widespread highs in the middle to upper 60s, including the Des Moines metro, while western and southwestern Iowa could approach 70 degrees in a few locations. Eastern Iowa, including Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, and the Quad Cities, should also enjoy highs in the middle to upper 60s. Northern Iowa will generally be a little cooler, although temperatures will still run well above seasonal averages. Southwest winds will help transport warmer air into the state, while sunshine and relatively dry air allow temperatures to rise efficiently during the afternoon. Some locations could experience occasional wind gusts around or above 20 mph, especially across eastern Iowa.
A weak cold front will move through the region Monday into Monday night, but it will have very little moisture available to produce precipitation. As a result, the front should pass through Iowa without any meaningful rain, bringing mainly a shift in wind direction and a few additional clouds. Tuesday will remain dry across the state, with high pressure helping maintain relatively quiet conditions. Afternoon highs should generally range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, with some western and southern locations potentially remaining a little warmer. More high-level clouds could limit daytime heating compared to Monday, but temperatures will still be above average for this time of year. Overall, the first two days of the workweek offer favorable conditions for outdoor activities, travel, and projects that depend on dry weather.
Light Rain Chances Return Wednesday, but Many Areas May Stay Dry
Iowa’s next opportunity for precipitation arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a disturbance moves southeast across the Plains and into the Midwest. This system will bring increasing cloud cover and scattered opportunities for light rain, but widespread soaking rainfall is not expected. Rain chances generally range from 20% to 40% across much of the state, with some areas approaching 45% depending on the system’s eventual track. Western and northern Iowa could see a few sprinkles or light showers early Wednesday, while portions of central and eastern Iowa may have opportunities for precipitation as the system moves through. The most likely period for precipitation is Wednesday morning into the daytime hours, although exact timing will vary by location. Some communities may receive only a few drops of rain, while others could remain completely dry.
One of the biggest limitations with this system is the lack of available moisture in the atmosphere. Even though the approaching disturbance will provide enough lift to generate clouds and scattered showers, it may struggle to produce measurable rainfall across much of Iowa. Forecast guidance suggests that rainfall totals will generally remain light, with many locations receiving less than one-tenth of an inch if precipitation develops. The exact placement of the showers remains uncertain because weather models disagree on how far north or south the disturbance will track. A more southern track would favor better rain chances closer to and south of Interstate 80, while a northern track could shift the focus toward northern Iowa. Confidence is fairly high that this will not be a widespread heavy rain event, but confidence in which communities actually receive measurable rain remains lower.
Strong Cold Front Brings a Noticeable Temperature Drop Thursday
The biggest weather change this week will be the arrival of a much colder air mass from Canada during the middle and latter portions of the week. A developing upper-level trough, which is a large dip in the jet stream, will allow colder air to move southward into Iowa behind Wednesday’s weather system. Temperatures will begin falling Wednesday, with afternoon highs generally in the 50s across much of the state. By Thursday, many communities will struggle to climb beyond the lower to middle 40s, with some northern areas potentially remaining in the upper 30s. This represents a temperature drop of roughly 15 to 25 degrees compared to Monday’s afternoon warmth, depending on location. The combination of colder temperatures and gusty north or northwest winds could make Thursday feel considerably colder than the first half of the week.
The cooling trend will affect the entire state, from Sioux City and Spencer to Des Moines, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport. Northern and northwestern Iowa may experience the coldest afternoon temperatures as the Canadian air mass settles into the region. Southern Iowa should also cool substantially, although some locations may remain a few degrees warmer than communities farther north. Wind speeds could increase as the colder air arrives, particularly Wednesday into Thursday. Persistent cloud cover could also limit daytime warming, potentially keeping temperatures slightly below current expectations.
Freezing Temperatures Possible Across Much of Iowa Late This Week
The return of colder air will also bring a greater opportunity for freezing overnight temperatures, particularly Thursday night into Friday morning. As Canadian high pressure settles over the Midwest, clearing skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to fall more efficiently overnight. Much of Iowa could see morning lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday, with some northern and northwestern communities potentially dropping into the middle 20s. These readings would mark a sharp contrast to the mild afternoons expected earlier in the week. The coldest temperatures are most likely in areas where skies clear early and winds become nearly calm. Confidence in widespread subfreezing temperatures is increasing, although local conditions will determine exactly how cold individual communities become.
Residents with outdoor plumbing, exposed water lines, or temperature-sensitive equipment should be prepared for another round of freezing conditions. Gardeners and homeowners with any remaining sensitive plants outdoors may also want to take precautions before Thursday night. Many Iowa locations have already experienced freezing temperatures this fall, so this is not necessarily the first freeze of the season. However, the upcoming cold could still be significant for exposed equipment and outdoor activities, particularly in northern Iowa. A freeze warning is not necessarily expected because much of the state is already beyond its typical growing season, and no new warning is indicated by the supplied forecast information. Temperatures should gradually recover over the weekend, making this look more like a brief cold spell.
Could Iowa See Snowflakes Wednesday Night or Thursday?
Although rain is expected to be the primary precipitation type Wednesday, there is a small possibility that a few snowflakes could mix in as colder air arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. This potential is greatest if light precipitation lingers long enough to overlap with falling temperatures. Portions of northern and northeastern Iowa may have a better opportunity to experience this changeover, although the exact location remains uncertain. The main challenge is that the coldest air may arrive after most of the available moisture has already moved away. That timing would leave much of Iowa dry by the time temperatures become cold enough to support snow. At this point, there is no indication of a significant winter storm or accumulating snowfall across the state.
The potential for a brief rain and snow mix should not be confused with a widespread snow event. Most forecast guidance favors light rain Wednesday, followed by drying conditions as the colder air becomes established. If a few snowflakes develop late Wednesday or Thursday, they would likely be brief and have little to no impact on roads or travel.
Weekend Forecast: Dry Weather and Warmer Temperatures Return
After the colder conditions Thursday and Friday, Iowa’s weather should begin improving as we head into the weekend of November 14–15. A large area of high pressure will move through the region, helping keep precipitation chances low and allowing skies to gradually clear. Saturday should feature a modest temperature recovery, with highs generally returning to the upper 40s and 50s across much of the state. By Sunday, some locations could climb back into the 60s, particularly across western and southern Iowa. Northern and eastern Iowa may warm more slowly, depending on how quickly the cold air moves away. The overall trend favors another stretch of relatively pleasant November weather after the brief midweek cooldown.
The warming trend will develop as an upper-level ridge builds over the central United States, allowing milder air to return to the Plains and Midwest. This pattern typically supports warmer temperatures and fewer opportunities for widespread precipitation when surface high pressure is also nearby. Confidence is fairly high that the weekend will be mostly dry, making it a favorable period for outdoor activities and travel. There is somewhat less confidence in exactly how warm Sunday will become because forecast models differ on how quickly the warmer air will spread eastward. Western Iowa could experience the warming trend sooner, while eastern Iowa may take longer to recover. Even with those differences, temperatures should be trending upward rather than continuing to fall as the weekend progresses.
Extended Iowa Weather Outlook: Above-Normal Temperatures Favored
Looking beyond the upcoming weekend, the larger weather pattern increasingly favors above-normal temperatures across Iowa and much of the central United States. The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook for November 14–18 shows a strong signal for warmer-than-average conditions across the northern Plains and surrounding regions. This pattern is expected to develop as a broad ridge of high pressure builds across the central and eastern portions of the country. Such a setup can help limit the southward movement of colder Canadian air while allowing milder temperatures to spread across the Midwest. The strongest temperature signals are centered across the northern Plains, but Iowa is also favored to experience above-normal conditions. Confidence in the overall temperature pattern is high because several major forecast models show similar developments.
The 8–14 day outlook, covering November 16–22, continues to favor above-normal temperatures across Iowa. Forecast guidance suggests the ridge will gradually shift eastward, keeping the central United States in a relatively mild pattern for the middle portion of November. Rainfall trends are somewhat less straightforward, with the 6–10 day outlook indicating increased precipitation potential farther west while the following period favors wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the central United States. That does not guarantee rain in Iowa on any particular day, but it suggests precipitation opportunities could increase later in the month. The timing and strength of individual weather systems remain uncertain at this distance, so specific rainfall amounts cannot yet be determined. For now, the extended Iowa weather forecast favors a return to mild temperatures rather than a prolonged period of winterlike cold.
Stay connected with IowaWeather.com for the latest Iowa weather forecast, local weather conditions, radar updates, and changing precipitation chances throughout the week. You can also follow the Iowa Storm Chasing Network and download the ISCN Weather app to stay informed as colder air arrives and the forecast evolves.