Will Snow Stick If It’s Above Freezing? Here’s What Science Says

Every winter, when snow is in the forecast after a period of warm temperatures, some people are quick to say, “It won’t accumulate—it’s been too warm.” While that seems logical, one major factor plays a critical role in whether snow will stick: the snowfall rate.

How Snow Can Accumulate Above Freezing

The key factor in determining whether snow will accumulate on surfaces above 32°F is how fast it falls. If snowflakes are light and sparse—like those in a snow globe—the heat from the ground will easily melt them on contact.

However, if snow falls heavily enough to reduce visibility, it can accumulate despite warmer ground temperatures. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), snow falling at a rate of 1 inch per hour or more can cool the surface enough to stick, even if temperatures are slightly above freezing. This happens because the cold snowflakes absorb heat as they pile up faster than they can melt.

A Real-World Example

Think of a clogged storm drain during heavy rain. If the rain is light, the water flows into the drain easily. But if rain falls too fast, water backs up and floods the street. The same principle applies to snowfall—when snow is falling faster than it can melt, accumulation begins.

Historical Proof

This effect has been observed in real storms. For example, during the October 2020 Midwest snowstorm, areas with air temperatures around 33–35°F still saw several inches of accumulation due to intense snowfall rates. Similarly, New York City’s April 1982 blizzard brought over 9 inches of snow despite temperatures hovering around 34°F.

Stay Ahead of the Snow!

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