Severe Weather Chances Return to Iowa Thursday and Friday
After a stretch of quieter weather, thunderstorms are expected to return to Iowa on Thursday and Friday. While not everyone will see severe weather, some storms could become strong to severe, especially across northern and western portions of the state. In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flooding in some areas.
Thursday: Isolated Strong Storms Possible Across Northwest Iowa
The greatest chance for severe weather on Thursday will be across the northwest half of Iowa, where a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center.
Scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening as warmer, more humid air moves into the state. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms could become strong enough to produce:
- Damaging wind gusts
- Large hail
- Locally heavy rainfall
The exact coverage and intensity of storms will depend on how much sunshine develops during the day. If clouds clear out and temperatures warm enough, the atmosphere will become more unstable and supportive of stronger storms.
Another concern Thursday will be heavy rainfall. The atmosphere will contain plenty of moisture, allowing thunderstorms to produce brief periods of intense rainfall. While widespread flooding is not expected, some areas could experience localized flash flooding, especially in low-lying or poor-drainage locations.
Friday: Higher Severe Weather Potential Statewide
Thunderstorm chances will continue Thursday night and into Friday as additional disturbances move through the region. By Friday afternoon and evening, the entire state of Iowa will be under some level of severe weather risk.
A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) has been issued for portions of west-central, northwest, and north-central Iowa, while the remainder of the state remains under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5).
Storms are expected to develop along an approaching cold front Friday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere should become increasingly unstable, providing fuel for thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather.
The primary threats on Friday include:
- Large to very hail
- Damaging wind gusts
- Heavy rainfall
A tornado cannot be completely ruled out, especially if storms remain isolated before merging into larger clusters. However, hail and damaging winds currently appear to be the more likely threats.
Heavy Rainfall May Become a Growing Concern
One factor that will need to be monitored closely is the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms from Thursday through Friday night.
Many areas of Iowa have been relatively dry recently, and much of the rainfall will be beneficial. However, if multiple rounds of storms move across the same locations, localized flooding issues could develop. Rainfall rates may be very heavy at times due to the high amount of moisture available in the atmosphere.
Looking Ahead
The threat for thunderstorms should begin to decrease by Saturday as a cold front pushes through the state. A few lingering showers or storms may still be possible early in the day, but much of Iowa should see improving conditions by the afternoon.
Temperatures will remain warm heading into the weekend, with highs climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s in some locations. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms may return later Sunday and into next week.
Stay Weather Aware
The forecast for both Thursday and Friday will continue to be refined as newer data becomes available. Anyone with outdoor plans should monitor the forecast closely and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.
Be sure to keep the ISCN Weather app installed and check back with IowaWeather.com for the latest forecast updates as we continue to track the potential for severe weather across Iowa.