Iowa Weather Update: Marginal Risk of Severe Weather Thursday in Northwest Iowa
Parts of Iowa could see thunderstorms return on Thursday as a more active weather pattern develops across the Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of northwest Iowa under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Thursday.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few stronger storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
What Is Driving the Iowa Weather Forecast?
A changing weather pattern will allow warmer and more humid air to move back into Iowa through the middle of the week. As this moisture returns northward, an approaching disturbance in the upper atmosphere will provide the ingredients needed for showers and thunderstorms to develop.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday night into Thursday, primarily across northwest and northern Iowa. Additional rounds of rain and storms are expected through the end of the week as several weather systems move through the region.
Severe Weather Potential Thursday
The greatest severe weather threat on Thursday will remain across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska, where stronger storms may develop during the afternoon and evening.
However, some of those storms could approach western Iowa later in the day or during the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center notes that a moderately unstable atmosphere may support isolated severe thunderstorms across portions of western Iowa.
If severe storms develop, the primary threats would be:
- Large hail
- Damaging wind gusts over 60 mph
- Frequent lightning
- Heavy downpours
At this time, the tornado threat appears low across Iowa.
Northwest Iowa Has the Best Chance for Strong Storms
The highest chance for stronger thunderstorms in Iowa will likely be across northwest portions of the state, including areas near Sioux City, Spencer, Storm Lake, Le Mars, Orange City, and surrounding communities.
Forecast confidence remains somewhat limited because storm development Thursday will depend on how much sunshine occurs during the day and how quickly the atmosphere can recover from any morning cloud cover or rain.
As a result, not everyone in northwest Iowa will see severe weather, but residents should remain weather-aware Thursday afternoon and evening.
More Active Weather Ahead
Thursday’s storm chances are only the beginning of a more active stretch of Iowa weather.
The National Weather Service expects multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday night through Saturday. In addition to isolated severe weather concerns, periods of heavy rainfall may develop as moisture levels continue to increase across the region.
Forecasters are also monitoring Friday, which may bring another chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms somewhere in Iowa.
Iowa Weather Outlook
- Wednesday Night: Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially across northern Iowa.
- Thursday: Marginal Risk of severe weather across portions of northwest Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns.
- Friday: Additional thunderstorms possible with another risk for a few strong storms.
- Weekend: Warm and humid conditions continue with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Stay Updated with the Latest Iowa Weather Forecast
Forecast details may continue to change over the next 24 to 48 hours as newer weather data becomes available. If you live in northwest Iowa or have outdoor plans Thursday, be sure to monitor the latest Iowa weather forecast and have a reliable way to receive weather warnings.
Check back often to IowaWeather.com and the ISCN Weather app for the latest severe weather updates, radar information, and forecast changes as we continue to track thunderstorm chances across Iowa.