Post-Thanksgiving Winter Storm Likely to Impact Midwest Travel
If you’re planning to travel across Iowa or the Midwest after Thanksgiving, you’ll want to stay weather-aware. Forecast confidence is increasing that a long-duration winter storm will move in Friday evening and continue through Saturday, bringing widespread travel impacts during one of the busiest travel weekends of the year.
A Long-Duration Snow Event Taking Shape
Forecast models are in fairly good agreement on the timing of this storm. Snow is expected to begin developing in northwest Iowa after 3 PM Friday, gradually spreading southeast through the evening and overnight hours. This will mark the start of what looks to be an 18- to 24-hour event, meaning snow will be falling across portions of the state for most of Friday night and Saturday.
The bulk of the moisture arrives Saturday, which is when accumulating snow becomes more likely. Snowfall will then gradually diminish into Sunday as the system slowly pulls away.
Track Uncertainty Remains
While the timing of the storm is coming into clearer focus, forecast models still disagree on the exact track of the system, and that uncertainty has big implications for Iowa. The storm’s path will determine where the heaviest snow sets up and whether parts of southern Iowa see periods of a wintry mix on Saturday (example of this pictured below in the most recent run of the 12Z NAM). A slightly farther-south track would push heavier snow deeper into the state, while a shift to the north could introduce more rain or sleet mixing in across southern Iowa. These details should become clearer over the next 24 to 36 hours as new data arrives.
What to Expect From the Weather Service
Based on current trends, the National Weather Service will likely begin issuing winter weather headlines within the next day to increase awareness of this storm.
Here’s a quick refresher on what those products mean:
Winter Storm Warning
Issued when these conditions are expected within the next 24–48 hours:
- Snow: 6″+ in 12 hours or 8″+ in 24 hours
- Sleet: ½” or more
- Or a combination of significant snow/sleet/freezing rain and/or winds ≥ 25 mph
Winter Storm Watch
Issued 48–72 hours ahead of potential high-impact winter weather meeting the same criteria as above.
Winter Weather Advisory
Issued for lower-end, but still impactful, winter weather expected in the next 24–36 hours:
- Snow: 3–5″ in 12 hours
- Sleet: under ½”
- Blowing snow: Occasional visibility drops to ¼ mile with winds < 35 mph
Wind and Temperature Impacts
Unlike some early-season winter storms, wind does not appear to be a major factor this time. Gusts early Saturday may reach around 20 mph, but sustained winds should remain near 10 mph out of the northwest.
Behind the departing system, a surge of well below-normal temperatures is expected to settle in to start the week, bringing the coldest air of the season so far.
Key Takeaways
- Travel impacts are likely beginning Friday evening and lasting through Saturday.
- Snow will fall for a long period (18–24 hours), with the most accumulation expected Saturday.
- Storm track remains uncertain—this will affect where the heaviest snow sets up and whether southern Iowa sees mixing.
- Expect winter weather alerts to be issued soon.
- Winds are not a major concern, but much colder air arrives after the storm.
We’ll continue to track this storm closely and provide updates as new data comes in. Stay tuned, and stay safe if you’re traveling this holiday weekend.