As we move into the first full week of March, weather patterns across the United States are showing signs of variability and uncertainty. A high-pressure system passing through the Northern Plains on Tuesday will bring fairly quiet conditions initially, but a shift in the larger-scale flow signals the potential for wetter weather ahead. However, the details surrounding this forecast remain unclear, with models struggling to determine the timing and track of incoming weather waves.
One thing that does seem more certain is the persistence of above-average temperatures throughout the week. Highs ranging from the 50s to low 60s are expected through Thursday, providing a relatively mild start to the month. However, there may be a slight cooling trend heading into the weekend, with temperatures dipping into the 40s. However, these temperatures could vary depending on the evolution of the weather system and its impact on local conditions.
Looking ahead to Wednesday evening through Friday, a significant trough is forecasted to move into the central United States. This feature has the potential to bring about more significant changes in weather patterns, including increased precipitation and possibly cooler temperatures. However, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the specifics of this system, with global models offering differing solutions in terms of timing, track, and intensity.
Currently, the GFS model suggests a wetter and slower solution compared to the ECMWF. This discrepancy highlights the challenge forecasters face when trying to predict the behavior of complex weather systems several days in advance. As a result, confidence in the forecast remains lower, and trends will be monitored throughout the week to see how this system evolves.
As always, it’s essential to stay updated on the latest forecasts and be prepared for potential changes in the weather as we head into March. Be sure to check out your local weather forecast on the ISCN Weather app, or on our weather forecast page.