Iowa Weather Turning Active This Weekend With Severe Storm Chances Increasing
If you have outdoor graduation parties, commencement ceremonies, or travel plans across Iowa this weekend, you’ll want to keep a close eye on the weather forecast. Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center are already highlighting parts of Iowa for severe weather potential Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Right now, the SPC has placed portions of Iowa under a 15% severe weather outlook for all three days. That level corresponds to a Slight Risk, or a Level 2 out of 5 on the severe weather scale. While this does not mean everyone will see severe storms, it does signal that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.
Why the Weather Pattern Is Becoming More Active
Meteorologists are watching a developing storm system over the western United States that will move toward the Plains this weekend. As that happens, warm and humid air from the Gulf is expected to surge northward into Iowa and the Midwest.
That moisture will help fuel thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
The SPC says dew points could climb into the mid to upper 60s this weekend, with even more humidity possible by Monday. In simple terms, the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable — one of the main ingredients needed for severe thunderstorms.
Strong winds higher in the atmosphere, known as wind shear, are also expected to increase. When instability and wind shear combine, storms can organize and strengthen quickly.
Saturday Forecast: Isolated Severe Storms Possible
Saturday appears to be the beginning of the active weather pattern, but the greater severe weather risk currently looks to remain mainly south of Interstate 80, especially across southern Iowa. Scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening as a dryline and incoming disturbance move into the region. The main threats Saturday could include large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Sunday Could Bring a Higher Severe Weather Threat
Sunday is shaping up to be another active day, and possibly a more concerning one for parts of Iowa.
The SPC is watching eastern Nebraska and western Iowa as areas where stronger storms could develop. Forecasters expect additional waves of energy to move through the Plains while warm, humid air continues to build northward.
Possible hazards Sunday include:
- Large hail
- Damaging winds
- Tornadoes
At this point, it is too early to determine exactly where storms will form or how widespread severe weather may become. However, the setup does support the possibility of organized severe thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon and evening.
Anyone attending outdoor graduation ceremonies or parties Sunday should monitor updated forecasts closely.
Monday May Bring the Most Widespread Severe Weather Risk
Monday currently looks like the most active day in the overall pattern. A stronger storm system and cold front are forecast to move into the Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of that front, Iowa could see very warm and humid conditions with dew points climbing into the lower 70s.
That combination could create strong atmospheric instability across the region. According to the SPC, severe storms Monday may include:
- Supercells
- Bowing lines of storms
- Large hail
- Damaging winds
- Tornadoes
While there is still uncertainty in the exact timing and placement of the strongest storms, confidence is increasing that parts of Iowa could see impactful severe weather Monday into Monday night. Be sure to stay tuned for additional forecast updates through the weekend as details become clearer.
Stay Weather Aware This Weekend
Forecast details will continue to change over the next several days as newer weather models come in. The exact timing and placement of storms will become clearer as we get closer to the weekend.
The team at IowaWeather.com and the Iowa Storm Chasing Network will continue monitoring the severe weather threat and provide updates throughout the weekend.
If you have graduation plans, outdoor sports, camping trips, or travel across Iowa, make sure to stay weather aware and have a plan ready in case severe storms develop.
You can also stay ahead of the latest Iowa weather updates by downloading the ISCN Weather app for live radar, watches and warnings, forecast updates, and breaking severe weather coverage from across Iowa.