Severe Storm Threat Increasing Across Iowa Friday Evening
A significant severe weather event is expected to unfold across parts of Iowa later today and tonight as conditions become increasingly favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has added an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) to Iowa in its latest forecast update, highlighting growing confidence in the potential for severe storms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.
Thunderstorm development is expected to hold off until late afternoon or early evening, generally between 5 PM and 7 PM, as a cold front moves into a warm and humid atmosphere across the state. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon, while dew points rise into the 60s, creating an unstable environment supportive of severe weather.
According to the SPC, the first storms that develop could quickly become supercells capable of producing hail larger than 2 inches in diameter. Strong winds higher in the atmosphere will help storms organize and maintain intensity as they move east across Iowa.
As the evening progresses, storms are expected to rapidly grow into one or more larger bowing clusters or lines of storms. This transition could increase the risk for widespread damaging straight-line winds, with some gusts potentially exceeding 75 MPH in localized areas. These winds would be capable of causing tree damage, power outages, and structural damage.
The tornado threat currently appears more limited compared to the hail and wind threats, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out this evening as low-level winds strengthen with the arrival of a stronger low-level jet.
The greatest severe weather threat is expected across western, central, and northern Iowa during the evening and overnight hours before storms gradually weaken and shift east later tonight.
There is still some uncertainty regarding exactly where storms first initiate and how quickly they organize, but confidence continues to increase that at least portions of Iowa will experience severe weather tonight.
Residents are encouraged to remain weather aware throughout the evening and make sure they have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially after dark when severe weather becomes more dangerous.
Continue checking back with the Iowa Storm Chasing Network and IowaWeather.com throughout the day for the latest forecast updates, live radar coverage, watches, warnings, and severe weather information. Also make sure you have the ISCN Weather app downloaded so you can receive instant weather alerts, track live radar, and stay ahead of rapidly changing conditions tonight.